Helena, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

377
FXUS64 KBMX 042320
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
620 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 619 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with
  high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees
  through Saturday. A heat advisory remains in effect through 9 PM
  Saturday.

- Thunderstorms: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will remain in
  the forecast into next week. Some of these storms may produce
  gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances today will remain on
the disorganized side, given a lack of upper-level support. In
turn, thunderstorm chances today will continue to be dictated by
peak afternoon heating and outflow boundaries. By tomorrow
however, a trough will begin to organize over the Midwest/Great
Lakes region dropping south as the day progresses. Given the
better flow aloft associated with this trough and a remnant MCV,
rain chances appear to be more organized during the afternoon
hours on Sunday. The trough should linger across the region into
Monday, allowing for slightly more organized rain chances here as
well, before finally moving off the east coast.

Rain chances by the middle of the new workweek should more
resemble the usual diurnally driven afternoon convection that
we`re used to seeing in the summer. Closer to the weekend
however, it looks like another weak trough could start to skirt
the region, creating more organized rain chances once more. Even
though confidence here is low, rain chances will remain
regardless, just much less organized. Due to these aforementioned
rain chances, afternoon highs will drop a few degrees as well,
settling into the low to mid-90s for much of the workweek. Given
these lower temperatures and increased cloud cover, heat index
values will drop as well, allowing us to drop below any kind of
Heat Advisory criteria.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026

Very few thunderstorms have been able to develop across the
region this afternoon, so have left mention of TSRA out of the
TAFS for the remainder of tonight. With the high pressure in
place, expect VFR conditions with generally light to calm winds
through the period. Some guidance has tried to pick up on a few
thunderstorms over EET and BHM around 04-05z this evening, but
confidence isn`t high right now to put that into the TAFs. Beyond
that, expect higher coverage of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon
and evening as a weak upper shortwave moves through. I have
included prob30s for TSRA from 21z - 00z tomorrow.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions are expected into next week, with daily
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather
concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of
thunderstorms, and humidity levels stay well above critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  93  73  91 /  20  50  30  60
Anniston    73  92  73  91 /  20  50  30  60
Birmingham  75  93  74  91 /  20  50  30  60
Tuscaloosa  75  92  75  91 /  20  50  30  50
Calera      74  95  74  93 /  20  50  30  60
Auburn      75  92  74  90 /  10  40  20  50
Montgomery  76  93  74  92 /  10  40  20  50
Troy        75  93  73  91 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...25/Owen